Album Listening: Aquemini - Outkast


Part 1 - Looking Back

Bill Belichik knows how to attack QB Carson Palmer
The defensive formations were classic BB schemes based on the versatility of his players. There was a constant rotation of packages and personnel. They started in 4 man front with Mike Wright, Myron Pryor, Vince Wilfork, and Ron Brace. All explosive and hefty. The d-line smashed into the Bengals o-line at every snap pushing them back and disrupting plays. Against the run the d-line blew up the plays and the linebackers and defensive backs cleaned up with solid tackles. When Palmer tried to pass, the Patriots rushers pressured up the middle to collapse the pocket. The team dominated the first half thoroughly with contributions coming from everybody, culminating in an outstanding individual play by cover package linebacker Gary Guyton. The third year player, signed as a undrafted free agent, finally got a chance to show the breakaway speed we had heard about when he undercut a short route and took it to the house.

Even on the Bengals 3rd qt TD drive there were some good signs. Promising 3rd year slot cornerback, Jonathan Wilhite made several good plays in the middle of the field. His near pick, the QB pressure, and the continuing physicality that defines good defenses gives me hope this defense could be special. The Bengals made several plays themselves that were quite good and ultimately scored twice in the 2nd half.
A worriesome sign is that when the Bengals were able to move the ball by going to a Colts style no huddle or quick huddle where the QB calls a play at the line of scrimmage based on the look of the defense, which leads to:

The Patriots crowd is quiet
A home crowd of a Superbowl contender should not let the opposing team call out plays at the line of scrimmage in the season opener. I could hear Tom Brady was not the first to notice the New England crowd going soft. We need more high fives, more raucous enjoyment of life! (more on this later)


Randy Moss is a sensitive dude and the Boston media is generally a bunch of sensitive dudes
Not a good match. Media also pounces on any vulnerable spots in an athlete. This whole situation is overblown crap. Largely Randy's fault for not following the Patriots media way which is based on the principle that you can't win with the modern media so just fight 'em to a draw by sticking to specific day-to-day, team based talking points. On the Boston media side of it, they think it is bad reporting to be nice to someone, part of the overall New England/Masshole attitude. If they would just act like his buddy he would give engaging and funny interviews. It might be possible to get a scoop without needling someone.

S Brandon Meriweather and MLB Gary Guyton will play fewer snaps this year
In 2009 Meriweather and Guyton were 1st and 2nd in defensive snaps played.
The fact that S Patrick Chung and elderstatesman S James Sanders are good enough to take snaps from Pro Bowl Alternate Merriweather is probably a good sign. Chung played every snap in the opener and he played well enough that Tedy Bruschi compared him to a young Lawyer Milloy.
Chung's speed and good tackling form were evident and he led the team in tackles for the game.


Part 2 Looking Ahead
Players sometime joke that NFL stands for Not For Long. They are usually referring to the short careers of NFL players. It also is true for teams and players remaining on top. Week to week and season to season teams and individuals rise and fall. Us fans and the media tend to overreact to what we just saw. Vegas sports betting is built on that fallacy. Never is this more true than in the opening of the NFL season. I'm very worried about all the experts swarming to the Patriots bandwagon. The Patriots themselves expressed more excitement and chatter about their team based on one win than I was used to. They all seem to think that the Bengals are a good team. We have no idea if the Bengals will even be .500% this year. They surprised the league by being good last year and Cedric Benson had a career year. Isn't possible that last year was an abberation they will return to mediocrity? If that is the case then can we really tell about how good the Patriots might be? Week 2 against the Jets in the Meadowlands will go a ways towards answering some basic questions:

1.) Can the Patriots win on the road in 2010?
Tedy Bruschi points out the Patriots only won games in three places last year, Buffalo, New England, and Old England. Take out the London game against the hapless Bucs and the Patriots went 1-6 last year on the road. The offense continually broke down against fired up defenses and crowds. How the o-line and Brady use the silent count and how Brady and the receivers use hand signals will determine how well the Patriots execute on offense in the New Meadowlands.

2.) How good are the tight ends?
The Patriot will have the opportunity to use the tight ends even more against the Rex Ryan defense. The rookies will have to be on their toes to be able to handle blocking against exotic blitz packages and also be able to exploit the weak coverage of Jet lb's and safeties. Brady will probably put the TE's and RB's in motion a lot to give him a picture of how the defense plan to cover. If a line backer moves if with the TE that means one thing, if a safety covers over them that means something else. Gronkowski and Hernandez will have to understand the subtleties of the Pats offensive presnap reads and adjustments. That ability is part of what makes Kevin Faulk, Wes Welker, and Randy Moss so special.

3.) Is the Pats defense for real, particularly against the run?
It is strange that going against a Jets offense that looked pathetic in Week 1 is a test. The young Pats defense has to establish itself as force to be reckoned with. If they can corral Ladanion Tomlinson and Shone Green that would be a big statement for the front seven to make considering all the new pieces up front. The pass defense looked very competitive against the Bengals.


Prediction New England Patriots 31- New York Jets 12

Age Ain't Nothing but a Number

2 TDs!?!!!

Since when did Wes Welker become a red zone target? On his 2nd TD he took quite a lick and seemed a bit shook up.

In Game Notes

8min. mark- Could the Patriots have had a better start? McCourty breaks up a bomb, the TE's look awesome, and Welker scores a TD.

The Patriots are going to win the Superbowl

The Patriots are going to win the Superbowl.
3 in 4 years was sweet. In '05 we were just glad and amazed that Tedy Bruschi was okay.
Coming within inches from stealing one in '06 and having one stolen from us by inches in '07 was amazing and heartbreaking.
'08 and Matt Cassell was a free slice of cheese pizza, maybe not what we would have ordered but since it was free we enjoyed the hell out of it and it filled us up.
In '09 we had to come to terms with the NFL reality Belichik and Brady having been telling us for years- it is hard to win in this league. Gone were the stalwarts of yesteryears defense, fizzled were the high priced free agents and trades, inconsistent were the young stars in the making. Brady was not the best QB in the league (although Football Outsiders had him rated the highest when you factor in weather and quality of pass defense. In the classic argument to sabemetric statistical analysis, I don't think he passed the eyeball test). Belichik was not the best coach in the league. The Patriots no longer had an edge. Not in personel, not in teamwork, not in QB or HC. The league has officially caught up an it is time to rebuild. This is not news to BB and he has been stockpiling young talent (33 players have two years or less experience). This is the year that we find out about the long term efficacy of "the Patriots Way".
2010 is about rebuilding and redemption. In loo of giving uninformed predictions (other than my Superbowl pick) I will introduce you to some of the new faces this year and give a few keys to watch for. For more info follow Mike Reiss's blog on the worldwide leader

New Players (Listed in order of importance according to me)

Gerard Warren, Defensive End, #92, 10th year
Originally a #3 draft pick this 330lb mountain of a man has never been a standout... the Cleveland Browns drafted him 3 picks before the Pats took Richard Seymour, his teammate in Oakland last year... Warren played 4 years with the Browns and 3 with the Raiders, needless to say he enjoys the organization of Pats leadership... I loved his demeanor in this spring media session,
http://www.patriots.com/mediacenter/index.cfm?ac=videonewsdetail&pid=42832&pcid=0

Devin McCourty, Cornerback, #32, Rookie
The Pats traded down and drafted McCourty which raised eyebrows in the media... he has been physical and competitive in the preseason while also getting burned like, well, a rookie... could return kicks at some point... made a tackle against strong runner Michael Turner, which raised my eyebrows.

Rob Gronkoswki, Aaron Hernandez, and Alge Crumpler, Tight Ends,
#87, #85, #82, respectively
Rookie, Rookie, 9th yr, respectively
A 2nd and a 4th round pick, plus a veteran signing revamp the tight end spot... A year ago BB said the TE preseason competition was the best he's ever seen, then everyone was released, traded, or terrible... Gronkowski is huge, Hernandez is explosive, and Crumpler was the superior blocking tight end for the Titan's 2000 yard rusher Chris Johnson last year... the TE's could be a huge part of the passing and running attack this year... Tedy Bruschi said BB was looking for the next Mark Bavaro and may have found him in Gronk... BTW, Chris Johnson highlight package well worth the watch.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JoUr82vUx60

Brandon Spikes, Inside Linebacker, #55, Rookie
Often compared to Tedy Bruschi because of his instinctive play, he would do well to be comparable to Ted Johnson... he will play on early downs to stuff the run... despite a stellar Florida career his draft stock dropped because his 40 yard dash times sucked... he is really slow... no video links for Spikes.

Marques Murrell, Outside Linebacker, #93, 4th year
Signed away from the Jets where he was a backup... Mike Vrabel was a young backup linebacker, signed away from the mighty defense of the Steelers... Murrell may start at outside linebacker if he is able to set the edge against the running game, that means being strong, quick, disciplined, and good at hand to hand combat... It may just be that he is wearing Richard Seymour's # 93, but Murrell looks huge on the field.

Jarrad Page, Safety, #44, 5th year
Acquired in a trade with the Chiefs after Brandon McGowan was lost for the year... started every game since his rookie year but will likely be a part of the sub package this year with the Pats... was injured for most of 2009 and then had a contract dispute similar to Logan Mankins this year.

Jermaine Cunningham, Outside Linebacker/Edge Rusher, # 96, Rookie
The 2nd round draft pick will be counted on to supply pressure off the edge... injured most of the preseason... was the fastest edge rusher in camp... could surprise us all and earn a starting position over Murrell and Rob Ninkovich if he develops quickly... part of the Florida trio drafted (Spikes, Hernandez, Cunningham)... media wondered why he was taken over more highly touted Florida teammate Carlos Dunlap who went one pick later to the Bengals.

Zoltan Mesko, Punter/Holder, # 14, Rookie
A big boomer, I fully expect Mesko to become a probowler once Lechler drops off in Oakland... most important to his job security and my all pro aspirations for him will be his ability to hold for probowl placekicker, Stephen Gostowski... Mesko is huge, if he learns to tackle he may one day cause a fumble... the Romanian born Hungarian immigrated to Ohio when was 12... he became a football punter when a coach saw him knock out a light in a seventh grade gym class kickball game... I wish I had a youtube clip of that.

Tracy White, Special Teams/linebacker, #58, 8th year
The Pats cut last years special teams captain, Sam Aiken, along with two other stalwart special teamers and then traded for this guy... he may lead the team in special teams tackles... I read he was fast... special teams is under reported.

A variety of other backups, a variety of positions and jersey numbers, mostly rookies
You may see these guys if the Pats depth is tested... WR Taylor Price has some buzz... with the usual collection of young lineman in development, possibly a Mike Wright or Russ Hochstein emerges from these as a consistent contributor.


Key Question Marks:
Defensive Backs
The defensive backfield is so young. Rookie McCourty and 2nd year player Darius Bulter have to step up huge at outside cornerback. Safeties Pat Chung and Sir Brandon Meriweather must make plays more consistently and ensure clear communication.

Offensive Line
Dan Connoly replaces pro bowler holdout Logan Mankins at left guard. You may remember Connoly drew my ire in last years column after the 4th and two game. In terms of individual execution he was the goat on both 3rd and two and 4th and two against the Colts. At the time he was filling in for oft injured right guard Stephen Neal. Not a good sign that he is starting although he was solid in preseason. The line will benefit from a full year of the German giant Sebastian Vollmer at right tackle.

Defensive Play Calling
After letting respected coach Dean "Steamed Carrots and" Pees go, BB elected to not name a defensive coordinator this year. He has done this several times with the offense, including this year. With the defense however he will be much more involved by all reports. I look forward to more flavors of defense ice cream this year; Pees always went with vanilla.

Tom Brady
Can Brady regain his status as the top QB in the game? His car accident on the Thursday before the season has me shook, as does the way he looked down and hesitated when a defender fell at his legs this preseason. I like his long hair but will it be enough to restore the unflappable confidence of #12? I obviously think so because as I said....

The Patriots are winning the Superbowl!!!!